Even after he won the Electoral College, Donald Trump has repeatedly claimed, without any evidence, that voter fraud during the 2016 election cost him the popular vote, with anywhere from 3 to 5 million “illegal” votes cast. Is there any credible support for this claim?
Can states be ranked in electoral integrity? This blog discusses the methods used by the Electoral Integrity Project and presents new evidence that the cross-national estimates it generates display considerable external validity when compared with the results of another independent study, the Varieties of Democracy project based at the University of Gothenburg. In both, well before the 2016 election, it is striking that the US ranks last in the quality of national elections among all Western democracies.
Widespread belief that elections are rigged or stolen may seriously damage democracy. Did problems of electoral integrity deter turnout? This new study finds a significant link between the quality of elections in each state, as evaluated by experts, and levels of voter turnout. The report was published in the Monkey Cage/Washington Post on 26th Dec 2016.
Ever since Bush v. Gore in 2000, the way that American elections are run has become increasingly partisan and contentious. The 2016 elections ratcheted up the record number of complaints by all parties. New evidence from the EIP project compares the performance of U.S. states in the 2016 elections based on the first results of an expert survey.
Election night in America was stunning. The outcome may be catastrophic and transformative for America and the world. The pundits and pollsters consistently reported throughout the long, long US campaign that Hillary Clinton was in the lead in the popular vote, estimated across the average of most national polls. What explains the outcome?
Many American commentators have had trouble understanding the rise of Donald Trump. How could such a figure surge to become the most likely standard-bearer for the GOP – much less have any chance of entering the White House? Yet Trump is part of a far broader phenomenon with the rise of populist authoritarianism across the West.